The price of cotton at present in China has been in a downward trend in recent years, constantly refreshing the historical low of nearly 5 years. In the spot market, at present, the price of domestic 3128b real estate cotton market is 13000 yuan / ton, down 57.92% compared with the high price of 30900 yuan / ton in February 2011. The futures market also remained weak. As of yesterday's close, the main contract cf601 slightly fell 45 yuan / ton to 12415 yuan / ton, the fourth consecutive trading day of decline.
Xia Ting, an analyst, believes that there are three main reasons for the continued decline in cotton prices. First, the high storage pressure is still the same, the turnover of reserve cotton is light. At present, there are nearly ten million tons of reserve cotton in the national reserve. However, due to the weak demand the competition imported cotton, the reserve cotton has been in an awkward situation. In the first ten days of July this year, we started to reserve cotton for rotation, but the transaction was light. Second, the demand side is weak, the textile enterprises are short of funds. Downstream consumption improvement is still weak, textile is still in the off-season in the near future, there are many orders in autumn. Yarn factory sales are still optimistic, inventory pressure is great, funds are tight, operation has improved significantly, cotton consumption has declined. Third, Southeast Asia seized the market textile exports fell. In July 2015, China's textile clothing exports reached US $27.254 billion, up 7.52% on a month on month basis, down 10.19% on a year-on-year basis. In the first half of 2015, China's textile clothing exports fell 2.91% on a year-on-year basis.
Although the situation of cotton is optimistic, there are two main positive factors in its practice. First, USDA's supply demand report was good. Recently, the U.S. Department of agriculture cut its output forecast, the domestic zhengmian also rebounded. According to the U.S. Department of agriculture's August global production demand forecast, the global cotton inventory decreased by 653000 tons in 2015 / 16. Second, the pressure on the supply side of the cotton market will decrease. According to the sampling survey of the main cotton producing counties in 13 cotton producing provinces regions in China, the actual planting area of cotton in 2015 is expected to be 52.64 million mu, 20% less than that in 2014; the total output of cotton in China will be 5.5 million tons, 14% less than that in 2014. According to the statistics of China Customs, in July 2015, China imported 105700 tons of cotton, down 34.67% month on month. September 2014 to July 2015, China imported 1600900 tons of cotton, down 42.80% year on year.
Under the above favorable effects, although other commodities have set new lows this week, the trend of cotton major contracts is still relatively stable, ready to take off, looking for opportunities to break through.
Liu Xintian, a core expert at China Commodity Development Research Center, predicted that cotton might be the first "pioneer" to rebound in the trend of commodity decline. There are three reasons for this: first, the short-term negative has been basically digested, but the positive has yet worked out, the upcoming golden nine silver ten will stimulate the concentrated outbreak of the latent good of cotton; second, this year's El Nino phenomenon may be a strong one since records, the impact of climate conditions may lead to the decline of cotton output the rise of cotton demand; third, the price of cotton has been hovering at the bottom for a long time, Domestic yarn imported yarn tend to be competitive. In terms of substitutability, viscose price is higher than cotton, which also has a positive impact on cotton demand.